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The Dow Jones U.S. Restaurants & Bars Index index has risen about 4 percent since the beginning of September. The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector index is up less than 1 percent for the period. Usually restaurant stocks correlate well with other retailers, but at the moment consumers are showing a preference for dining out over buying apparel, said Oscar Sloterbeck, senior managing director at Evercore ISI. A broadening job recovery and lower gas prices are encouraging middle-income consumers to dine out again. “The quickest path to the consumer might be through their belly,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston. Other discretionary stocks will also see an effect, but with a lag, he said. While the better performance at restaurants may have more to do with an increased check size for the average diner, there is a growing belief that consumer discretionary companies will see more spending thanks to lower energy prices. The average price of a regular gallon of gasoline is $2.914, down from $3.186 a month ago, in the longest sustained decline for prices since 2008, according to AAA. This is likely to boost consumer discretionaries in the next couple of months, said Charles Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management.

RPT-Wall St Week Ahead-Restaurants’ uptick offers hope for consumer discretionaries | Reuters

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